Easter IMHO

19 million doses of AZ vaccine in the UK today. 15 million in bulk storage. 4 million in vials. 500k vials passed quality control and going into arms. 3.5 million going through quality control.

AZ aiming for 2 million doses per week. 12 week gap between doses. 24 million doses in 12 weeks? 43 million total? Call it 31 million. How many Brits over 40? 31 million. How many of covid deaths occur in over 40s? 99%

One AZ shot not equal to full protection. One AZ likely equal enough protection that you don't die if you get covid. That is the rationale behind the timing of doses.

My view is that once those at risk get their first jab, the fatality rate will drop markedly. How many have UK vaccinated so far? 1 million as of last week. We are doing really well. It comes down to how quickly can we get vaccine into arms.

My guess is we are pretty much over this at Easter.

Posted By: Timmy_Goat, Jan 4, 22:02:37