and what drives the betting market....(or any market)

People with complex models that have proven to be pretty accurate (on average) over a large sample.

Football is much more predictable than you think.
That's why the points total to avoid relegation is within a pretty tight range season after season.
Even though each team has 114 points to play for it always comes down to the Gaussian distribution although some goal models follow the Poisson Distribution as well as complex Monte Carlo simulations which add in player lineup models and travel models as well as degree of home field advantage.

Posted By: usacanary, Jan 18, 18:14:33