Pretty solid analysis. Two more things

I dont know how solid the Tory vote is.

Most Tories i know (although i disagree with them about a tonne of stuff) are Ken Clarke style Tories. They think Boris is a chancer and a buffoon and no deal utter madness. They wont vote for Boris. Some Remainer Tories might flirt with LibDem, but quite a few might just stay at home. If Boris needs to compaign for no deal in order to put the Brexit Party back in its box, he'll win the right wing nutjobs, but will lose a lot of moderates.

The other thing is it depends whether Remainer parties can coordinate. If LibDem and Labour come to some sort of sensible accommodation, they can win A LOT of Tory seats where FPTP means a pretty small minority of Tory votes is just enough to sneak past the split LD/Lab votes. This is a big if, but were it to happen (they carve up seats) that would be the end for Boris.

At the end of the day, f**k knows. But I reckon Boris will do bloody well to get back to where he started, and we might well have a "rainbow alliance".

Posted By: Under soil heating, Sep 3, 22:55:25