Dont fall for the 'we need to agree Phase 2 first' crap

There are only two types of future arrangement:

(1) single market and customs union: open border not an issue

(We have ruled that out btw)

(2) everything else (whether free trade deal or hard brexit): open border is an issue otherwise you get smuggling in and out of the UK/EU.

So given we have ruled out scenario one, the border is an issue regardless of whether or not you have a free trade deal. There is no reason why the issue cant be resolved at a principles level now.

The Tories dont want to resolve it now because they know they cant square the circle. They are hoping that a good trade deal will bribe opponents into submission.

If you're the EU (and especially Ireland) you need the issue resolved now because knowing what your border looks like post Brexit is fundamental to an exit deal.

And really, you need to know where the border is before you can meaningfully talk trade:

1) if the border is EU/UK vs the World, the EU can give everything (single market/customs union)
2) if its EU vs UK then the EU can give whatever the UK wants to take
3) if its EU/island of Ireland vs UK then the EU can get close to scenario 2, knowing that the grey market is limited to NI and there are geographic and logistical limitations to that being exploited
4) if no intra UK border controls exist then an unpoliced Eire/NI border is a massive issue and the whole UK becomes a huge potential source of uncleared goods which means you probably cant give the UK very much (and probably have to put your own border posts up).

Remembering always that if there is no deal at all, you have a hard border. It's not the Republic that is going to erupt into violence if there is a border. So this one is on us. We absolutely need to nail this issue, it's our problem to solve.

And really, whichever way you approach it, the only solution that avoids tearing up the Good Friday Agrement (which no-one wants) or destabalising the Union (which most people dont want) is single market equivalence. At which point, why have we gone through this exercise?

(To answer your query in brackets, the text wouldnt be legally binding but it would be politically binding, which amounts to the same thing.)

Posted By: CWC, Dec 5, 20:40:30