So the probability (% chance) of us getting more than the following number of points

from our remaining games according to this (wow) site, courtesy of SCC is:

User Posted Link

0 = 100% (28)
1 = 100% (29)
2 = 99% (30)
3 = 97% (31)
4 = 93% (32)
5 = 86% (33)
6 = 76% (34)
7 = 66% (35)
8 = 52% (36)
9 = 39% (37)
10 = 29% (38)
11 = 19% (39)
12 = 11% (40)
13 = 7% (41)
14 = 3% (42)
15 = 2% (43)
16 = 1% (44)
17+ = 0% (45-49)

So if 40 is the magic number to survive (eg 3 wins + 3 draws or 4 wins) then that's a 1 in 9 year event approximately, apparently. So 8 times we would get relegated and only stay up once out of 9 year attempts at achieving what we need to given the current table and this (wow) model.

If however it's less than 40 (the survival target) this year, then our chances obviously increase a bit in line with the the table above.

Obviously the assumptions behind these predictions matter hugely, and influence the outcome/predicted results significantly. Which, I understand are that home teams have an advantage (not sure by how much, doesn't say) and teams higher in the league also have an advantage (again don't know by how much though).

* based on the weighted method.

Posted By: essexcanaryOTBC, Mar 23, 17:50:36