Doesnt take into account opponents.

say we go 3-0-4

If the three wins are versus CP, Sun and Newcastle we almost certainly stay up......

If we go 3-0-4 and none of the three wins are vs CP, Sun and Newcastle then it should be obvious our chances of staying up are much less when you consider both opponents points and GD against us.

Those charts are basically a glorified table of tilt.
Taking the average PPG of the season so far and extrapolating out to the 50% percentile point and doing a normal distribution around that point.

Also....

Does it calculate for injuries/suspensions.......NO
Does it calculate for Strength/venue of opposition (Arse away vs Villa at home)........NO

Highly flawed in many other ways too........

The only way to estimate the true points total is to estimate the % of W/L/D in every individual game and get an average PPG if that game were played a million times.
A rough number off the top of my head would be something like 1.6 vs SUN at home and 0.4 vs Arsenal away.

Posted By: usacanary, Mar 21, 20:57:52