His stance is nothing to do with Europe or our place in it

and all to do with the coming Tory leadership election and his place in that.

He's on the left of his party (as are Cameron and, more importantly, Osbourne). The Tory system ends up with two names on a ballot which then goes to the members. Come hell or high water, one of those names will be Gideon Osbourne.

Boris is desperate to be the other. His main opponent at this stage looks like Gove (May won't get near the final ballot, but will run anyway and lose graciously and end up with another top job). Gove is on the right of the party.

He has two choices: back In or back Out. Back In and he will firm up the Tory Right behind Gove, while fighting (and almost certainly losing) against Osbourne for the Tory Left vote in those early stages.

However, back Out - which will lose - and suddenly he looks much more appealing to the Tory Right. He doesn't need all of them, just more than Gove, who is much more popular in his party than he is in the country.

His decision to campaign for Out is all about his ambition to be Tory Leader, which he can't be without being on the ballot paper, which he can't do without winning support from the Tory Right with whom he disagrees on many other issues. Europe is sufficiently incendiary as an issue that just being seen to be on the same side as them might well be enough for his purposes, in terms of winning the Tory Right's support in the early stages of the leadership process.

Posted By: Old Man, Feb 21, 19:12:41