the danger of Trump isn't just election (which is still a risk)

it's that his views get popularised and force the more rational candidates to lurch rightwards in order to shore up their own votes.

I suspect you're right that when the primarises start to kick in proper, it's (probably) unlikely that he'll get the GOP nomination BUT, and it's a big but, he *will* get a lot of support and Carson, Rubio, Cruz and Bush III *will* have to protect themselves from losing votes to Trump.

UKIP is a classic example. They won't ever reach the level of popular support that sees them getting proper UKIP MPs elected (vs Tory defectors) but they are already at levels of support that mean they have a real impact on the outcome of elections and Tories being at risk of losing seats. And so to shore up their defences, the Tories have to go stronger on the Anti-EU message than they would ordinarily like and anti-EU sentiment gets whipped up generally.

If/when we lose the EU referendum, it'll be because of the dog whistle politics of Farage.

And that's the danger of Trump: that his dog whistle politics will have an indirect effect on the policies of otherwise sensible mainstream candidates. Only Trump is massively wealthy and can buy a lot of media coverage (and therefore votes), so he will have even more of an influence than Farage.

Posted By: CWC, Dec 8, 13:48:22