maybe it's the wrong word

a good chunk is centre-left and hates the Coalition, a good chunk is centre-right and approves of it, a good chunk is pure protest.

If its vote is going to fragment, it's going to go to lots of different homes - Green, for the student/woolly liberal anti-establishment types; Labour for the left wing; Conservative for the right wing.

If you assume that UKIP is taking votes from the main parties (given the Lib Dems' traditional pro-EU stance, I cant imagine many defecting directly to UKIP) then the fragmenting Lib Dem vote must be filling the void left by those coting UKIP.

Posted By: CWC, May 8, 02:25:57