FAO norway, re those odds

below, which apparently have us 11/10 for top 2, and 4/6 for promotion.

You were asking what that says for the chances of success if we make the play-offs (and suggesting the odds of us going up if are in the POs looked a bit short, I think?)

Just backing out the maths of that (and ignoring the bookies' slice, for simplicity).

Those odds say we have a 48% chance of top 2, and 60% of promotion.

So they're saying a 12% chance we go up via the play-offs.

Separately, they also have odds of us finshing top 6 (1/12) - which means the overall odds imply a 45% chance we'll finish in the play offs (92% - 48%).

So taking that together, the odds imply that *if* we finish in the play-offs, we have a 28% chance of going up through them (12% / 45%).

So only a touch more than 1 in 4. Not that generous.

(Of course, all this ignores the bookies' cut, as I say. For example, there's probably more than an 8% chance we finish 7th or worse...?)

Posted By: Tricky Hawes, Mar 9, 14:51:42