so do it properly..........

estimate W/L/D % probabilities for each individual game (you can use betting lines to give you rough estimates, minus the built in bookies vigorish)

Or you can use a more realistic Monte Carlo simulation of results based on team strength vs venue plus other factors such as squad strength due to transfers/injuries.
Travel/rest factors are very important also in calculations.
(its a proven fact that teams off full rest play better than those off partial rest)

You should be able to work out the odds of various events using a normal distribution (Bellend curve)

Posted By: usacanary, Mar 4, 16:19:58