This is very, very likely

The boundaries give Labour an inbuilt advantage: even with 29% even under the patently unelectable Brown they got a lot of seats and Milipede - unlikely as it seems given how genuinely useless he is - will lead the largest party post May 2015. You can put your mortgage on that.

However it's very likely that once Scotland is removed he will lack an overall majority and will need to rely on others, at least for "English matters".

There will be a rump of Lib Dems - their ground game is the best in English politics by a country mile so they get more seats than they "should". But the party members won't stomach another coalition with the Tories whatever happens - if Cameron were to be forming a new government, which he won't be, it would have to be a minority government. There'd be another election within a year or two. A Lib/Lab pact is much more feasible.

If Cameron loses the election, as I think he will, he will go. Boris or Theresa? Which is better? There's only one way to find out...

The next few months will set the tone for the next decade at least constitutionally, probably the next generation. Will Westminster go far enough to avoid claims that the English haven't delivered on what they promised north of the border? The only way that can happen is with a much more federal model for the UK as a whole - anything else would be very likely to be voted down by the Commons.

Interesting times...

Posted By: Old Man, Sep 19, 09:45:59