quick laymans explanation for those interested.

imagine you played a game, it cost 1 pound a ticket

1 in every 10 tickets is a winner and pays back 11 pounds

meaning you will lose 90% of the time.... would you play?

It should be obvious that its insanely profitable to keep playing for as long as they let you play as for every pound you outlay you make a profit of 10p

Back to sports betting...........

If we assume the market value for a game is X and we can get X+10% then in the long run we will win our expected value (EV)

Basically if you know what you are looking for you can find numbers that are "off" You can also estimate how far off they are and use Kelly criterion to bet size based on % advantage.
(warning math link)

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Posted By: usacanary, Aug 9, 22:31:43