UPDATE: Nasie's Anti-Tilt Table

For those that would have taken us finishing 17th at the start of the season, looks like your wish will come true! Yes it's squeaky-bum time, but during my latest calculation-fest, various interesting stats have jumped out at me to reassure as much as is humanly possible that we will be playing Premier League football again next season.

Lets start with my final table. As usual I've assumed that teams will equal the number of points over their remaining games, as they've achieved over the same number of previous matches. So for example, we've accumulated 9 points from our previous 9 games... so assuming we'll do the same and get 9 points from our final 9 games, then we'll finish on a total of 38 points.

1. Chelsea 89
2. Man City 86
3. Liverpool 82
4. Arsenal 79
5. Tottenham 69
6. Manchester United 65
7. Everton 65
8. Southampton 57
9. Newcastle 53
10. West Ham 48
11. Aston Villa 43
12. Hull 40
13. Stoke 40
14. Sunderland 40
15. Swansea 38
16. Crystal Palace 38
17. Norwich 38
18. WBA 33
19. Cardiff 32
20. Fulham 23

So on form, we'll comfortably finish above regulation simply and only because there are three much much worse teams than us this season. Thank goodness.

That said, of teams below us, Palace and WBA have a game in hand, and Sunderland have three. What my calculations won't take into account, aside from uplifts and dips in form across the final ten matches, is the games running out pressure factor. As the old adage goes... rather have points on the board than games in hand. Given that, and here's one of my interesting discoveries, Sunderland stand out as a case whereby they may well have an artificially inflated finish in my Anti-tilt table for a number of factors.

Firstly they have joyfully got themselves involved in a League Cup Final and an FA Cup run that can only distract them from their league business. You can't help but dream and get carried away. (I'm hoping for a draw at Hull today and a replay at the SoL in the run up to our Prem game in a fortnight.)

Secondly, and most damningly of all is Sunderland's form against teams in the bottom half of the table. Against top half teams, Sunderland lie 6th with a points per game ratio of 1.15. Against the bottom teams, Sunderland are 20th with a 0.69ppg. Sunderland in their final 12 games still have to play Palace, Norwich, WBA, Cardiff and Swansea. They have Man C, Man U, Liverpool, Tottenham and Chelsea away still, as well as games against Everton and West Ham. Three out of the 5 teams around them they've still to play at home. Some huge 6-pointer matches to come!

So including us, which teams below us are still to play one another? This is a good indicator to demonstrate on how, if any teams can go on that good-a-run that it upsets the current form tables.

Norwich: Sunderland (h), WBA (h), Fulham (a)
Palace: Sunderland (a), Cardiff (a), Fulham (a)
WBA: Sunderland (a), Cardiff (h), Norwich (a)
Cardiff: WBA (a), Palace (h), Sunderland (a)
Sunderland: Palace (h), Norwich (a), Cardiff (h), West Brom (h)
Fulham: Norwich (h), Palace (h)

Conclusions. I don't think Sunderland will go down, but it might be a lot tighter than their current up-lift in PL form shows... especially if they continue their FA Cup adventures. Fixture congestion etc etc. For the same reason, it may pull Hull back in to the regulation fray!? Fulham are dead and buried already I believe. I just don't see enough about Cardiff and West Brom to survive. We can be thankful that our consistent one point per game average this season is more than enough to keep us up.

Posted By: Jim Nasium, Mar 9, 13:03:08