Just working out when I'd switch from resolute positivity to...

...merely hopeful against all likelihood. Obviously I'll never truly give up until the maths say it is so, but just going on my predictions and how they'd be affected by undesirable results:-

Spurs H L
Villa A L
Stoke H W
Southampton A L
Sunderland H W
Swansea A D
WBA H W
Fulham A L
Liverpool H L
Man Utd A L
Chelsea A L
Arsenal H D

11 more points to take us to marginal survival in 17th on 36pts (I ran a full predictor table Tues night post-match). 3 wins and 2 draws.

So I'm not expecting any points from the next 2 games, but obvs any gained would give us more leeway.

Just a draw against Stoke and those 2 points we'd need to pick would have to come in draws at Southampton & Fulham (alongside the draw at Swansea I'd already predicted).

Stoke beat us and we'd have to win away at Southampton in the very next game to avoid still needing it come the big boys.

Likewise lose against Sunderland and we'd have to immediately correct it with a win at Swansea and then draw at Fulham to pick up that extra point already earmarked for Swansea.

Draw against Sunderland and we'd 'just' need the win at Swansea instead of a draw.

Lose against Swansea and we'd need the point at Fulham.

Draw against West Brom and it'd have to be a win at Fulham rather than needing draws against the big boys.

Same for a loss against WBA. Could pretty much be last chance saloon for Fulham by then and we know how they love playing us so this outcome isn't looking good.

I'd predicted that Arsenal would be out of the title race come the last game, hence the draw. I think they'd still rip us apart on the counter should we need a win, but unless we've already picked it up elsewhere we do need that draw for the 11th point.

Hmmm not sure if this has helped as I've found alternative (less likely) routes to those points that'll keep me clinging on with faint hope 'til the bitter end. I'll probably be wrong about 36 being enough too. As it is I know I'm holding belief over the harsh reality of form but those 3 home games against lower half sides are crucial with wins there leaving 2 points to come from the other 9 fixtures.

Something I didn't mention yesterday was that in my prediction league, we didn't drop into the bottom 3 until mid April, only popping back out on the last day. Those hoping it'd happen sooner so that McNally is forced into action may be frustrated for some time yet.

Or a run of defeats could be enough for him. We've had no worse than 2 back-to-back defeats on 3 occasions (excluding the cup which would be 2 further occasions), in Sep - Spurs then Villa coincidentally, Chelsea then Arsenal in Oct and Fulham then Man U in Dec. So following West Ham, defeats to Spurs & Villa would be our worst run and maybe enough to trigger a change prior to the must win home game vs Stoke.

In the interests of balance our best back-to-back points scoring runs (excluding 2 occs of b2b cup & league wins & 1 occ of c&l draws) were a W-D-D in Dec (encouragingly vs West Brom, Swansea & Sunderland) and W-D vs Hull & Newcastle in Jan.
Actually, just doing this last little bit has helped, seeing as I have us down as needing consecutive points against Sunderland, Swansea & West Brom. We've done it once...

Sorry for this long post based purely on speculation, I just needed to run through it for my own good (and so I can return to it easily deeper into the season, should things go further awry).

Posted By: DJ Ginga, Feb 13, 18:58:30