Seriously then. Let's say we get one more win and nothing else. Or three draws. I'd say

that's about realistic even for the negative amongst us isn't it ?

So here's what would have to happen for us to get relegated.

Reading - 6 games, 15 points (they would clearly overtake us on GD if they managed that!). Nigh on impossible
QPR - 7 games, 15 points (same). With less than a point a game so far, very very unlikely. I'd say no threat beyond a miracle.

So I think we're agreed we're not going to fall beneath those two.

Who's left ?

Wigan, 8 points in 8 games. Would again overtake us on GD. Now, that's not really so unlikely is it ?
Sunderland, 7 points in 7 games. Less likely with their run in and form, but that's a couple of jammy wins and a draw. Not exactly impossible.

Villa, 5 points in 6 games and to improve their GD, or 6 points. With their current form and the fact they play us, not at all unlikely.

Newcastle, 5 points in 7 games. I would be shocked if they didn't. So very likely.

Stoke, 4 points in 6 games. Again, would be surprised if they didn't manage.

So basically if we win only one game or draw only 1, I think it is a lottery between us, Wigan and Sunderland. That leads me to believe that we need 40 points or even 41. Because if we manage 41 our goal difference will possibly beat those just beneath us.

Could be wrong, but that's why I am s**tting it.

Posted By: Steve in Holland, Apr 6, 17:45:05