You have to think of it as distribution probabilities.......

You dont have a zero probability vs any team as bookies wouldn't let you bet!

You can use the betting markets for %'s

From today.

Saints vs Arsenal

Saints W (4/1) (0.57)
Saints D (3/1) (0.23)
Saints L (4/6) (0.0)

Meaning Saints have a probability of 0.8 PPG

We had around 0.7 vs Man City and 0.8 vs Chelsea

so

WBA -1.0
Chelsea 0.8
Man City 0.7
West Ham -1.1

so overall about 3.6 points.

It should be obvious those games are much tougher than average.

Posted By: usacanary, Jan 1, 17:30:39