actually you would be kind of wrong.

The fewer games remaining, the less accurate it is in terms of strength of shedule. (opponent strength)

Let me give an extreme example.

Lets say a team in the bottom 3 (wolves) had 5 games remaining.

If their last 5 games were

Man Utd
Man City
Chelsea
Spurs
Arsenal

or

Wigan
Bolton
QPR
Blackburn
Aston Villa

The TOT doesnt look at strength of shedule but looks at average results.

It actually does better as a predictive force if we have say 19 games played........ how will a team do in the next 19 games.
Because the next 19 game contains roughly the same average strength of opposition.

If I want to predcit how an individual team will do then you have to analyze game by game for each probability of outcome.

Posted By: usacanary, Mar 25, 19:04:25