You currently have great bet, the best EV play is to let it ride but...

its high variance.

If we treat Charlton as being 95%+ certain to win.......

if you bet 100 on WHU and 125 on Man City

If Charlton, Southampton and Man Utd win you win 770 (1000-225-5)

If Charlton, West Ham and Man Utd win you lose 30 (100-125-5)

If Charlton, Southampton and Man City win you lose 5 (100-100-5)

If Charlton, West Ham and Man City win you win 195 (100+100-5)

Personally I would let it ride as you currently have a fantastic bet based on current market prices.

It just depends how much 1000 means to you if you want to hedge more of it.

If you want to hedge you might want to wait until Charlton are almost certain of winning as the other two title races look like they will be close for a while.

Posted By: usacanary, Mar 4, 19:31:34