OK, simple explanation that "most" people can understand.

when you go to a bookies or an online bookie you will be given odds on

Norwich win
Swansea win
Draw

The odds on the three possible outcomes are based on probabilities.

For the Swansea game the current odds are (minus bookie vig and rounded)

Norwich win 13/4 (23%)
Swansea win 1/1 (49%)
Draw 5/2 (28%)

By using the above you estimate the average points per game (if the very same game were played 1 million times)

in this case its

Swansea 1.75 ppg

(49% x 3points + 28% x 1 point + 23% x 0 points)

Norwich 0.97 ppg

(23% x 3points + 28% x 1 point + 49% x 0 points)

Thats roughly how you can arrive roughly 1 point (0.97) from the Swansea game.

Doing the same calcs you can estimate any game based on opposition quality and venue (home or away)

Any questions?

Posted By: usacanary, Feb 6, 00:02:53