when will we get to 40 points......Stats Tilt ahead......

most people are not thinking about their calculations in the correct way.

They are looking at the games we should win.

A better way to do it is "point probability" per game.

As an example in todays game the betting market odds were as follows. (minus bookie vig)

Chelsea 8/13 (61%)
Norwich 5/1 (16%)
Draw 16/5 (23%)

This gives you a figure of

Chelsea 2.06 points for this game
Norwich 0.71 points for this game

If you can estimate the approx odds (which I have done) you can work out how many points in each game we should get. (on average)

Against Chelsea we got 1 point, which is a better than expected result.

Against Fulham we got 1 point which is a worse than expected (1.4 predicted)

Looking at the relative toughness of each game (wigan at home being the weakest opponent and Spurs away being the toughest)

You can come up with a figure.

I estimate we will get around 45 points (+/- 3 )

I estimate we will cross the 40 point mark at the end of the Everton game on April 7th

I have us only taking around 5 points from the last 6 games.

Posted By: usacanary, Jan 21, 20:25:41