injuries dont change the HFA value, they change the probability of the result.

which is reflected in the betting line.

Lets just say for easy math that you add 10% HFA to the home team.

If the next home game is Sunday after playing a Thurs Europa cup game (with long travel) then it might be as low as 6-7%

If the next home game is after a 2 week internetional break (giving the team ample rest and lots of time to prepare tactically) then it might be 13-14%

The average is still 10% but obviously it varies on the situation.

Edges can be small in sportsbetting so getting these situations right is very important.

Posted By: usacanary, Dec 30, 18:30:20