prediction table. Plus making more accurate predictions.

Stoke 14 49
Everton 13 47
Norwich 14 43
QPR 14 43
WBA 14 41
Swansea 14 38
Wolves 14 38
Fulham 13 35
Sunderland 14 30
Blackburn 14 27
Bolton 14 24
wigan 14 24

This doesnt take into consideration the strength of shedule.

I have us finishing around 42 points

So far the bottom half teams have scored less points/per game than last season so it should take less points to stay up this season.

11 wins will be more than enough, 10 wins should be enough.

FWIW a more accurate way to predict how many points each team will get is strength of shedule analysis.

Basically you take the likely betting odds on each game home/away/draw and turn those into individual probabilites.

As an example if we are 40% win 40% lose and 20% draw

On average we should get 1.4 points from this game.

For a real example.

Fulham vs Liverpool tonight is

46.5% Liverpool win

25% Fulham win

28.5% Draw

On average Fulham will get 1.04 points from this game.

On average Liverpool will get 1.68 points from this game.

Repeating the above for every single game gives you a more accurate points prediction based on home/away and strength of opposition.

Posted By: usacanary, Dec 5, 18:18:46