Odds to get relegated........... ....

I have been doing some estimates based on both p[oints totals and strength of opposition (home/away)

The current betting market looks a bit out of wack in a few spots.

I am basing my assumption that it will take roughly 35 points to avoid relegation

The latest odds are here.

User Posted Link

Wigan is currently 2/5 to get relegated.

I give wigan only a 21% chance of reaching 30 points for the season
This looks like a clear value bet at 2/5 on........

Blackburn...... again I give them a roughly 47% chance to reach 30 points.

Again at even money 1/1 this looks a clear value bet on them getting relegated.

Fulham are currently as high as 12 to 1

I have them projected at 36-37 points for the season based on opposition.

Its still a value bet at 12 to 1

Same with Everton at 25 to 1 but its value may hinge on a takeover and what money they hav to spend in Jan.

So where is the Anti-Value (i. e. you should fade the action at betting exchanges )

Norwich,Swansea and QPR seem slightly undervalued by the market.
Its assumed that all will fade.

Best bet on the board by far is Wigan to get relegated at 2/5 on. Even 1/3 on has some value left in my opinion.

The downside is having to tie up you money for 6 months.

Would be an ideal bet to use for a free bet of some kind.

Posted By: usacanary, Nov 13, 22:37:55