The relationship of GD to points per game

A question was raised yesterday about the value of GD and its worth as an extra point.

Now while it is true that GD is highly correlated to points (see the following article)
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What the above doesnt show is Its also correlated to the distribution of how those points were earned.

The higher the ratio of draws to wins, the higher on average you would expect the GD given the same number of points.

Reading has a 1.87 ratio where as Swansea has a ratio of 0.46
Its not remarkable that your would expect (on average) for Reading to have a far higher GD per point than Swansea or even Norwich

Posted By: usacanary, Apr 5, 02:02:52