Rob McElwee ('The Badger') is the daddy of weather predicting

Published at 10:00, 13 December

(Next update at 10:00, 20 December)

Written by Rob McElwee

Summary
A visit from the North Pole...
...without any reindeer and well before the 24th. By the end of the first week a harsh northerly wind will have dropped temperatures to freezing and left a layer of snow for many. From that point on, there is no indication of a significant thaw or warming trend so hard night frosts, possibly lasting throughout the day again, are back. Snow seems likely to fall - not for all but for many. Sunshine will be above average for some parts of the UK, changing depending on the exact wind direction.

You'd be surprised how few people have asked about a "White Christmas". Even though the betting odds have dropped, at the time of writing they are still 4/1 for London

Monday 13 December 2010 to Sunday 19 December 2010

Cold then colder
The week starts already colder than the weekend started. Fog in the Welsh Marches, Vale of York and one or two other places characteristic of this pressure pattern - i.e. anticyclonic. Night frosts are widespread but not hard, but ice is a problem as the banked up snow in Scotland and eastern England thaws by day. A significant change happens on Thursday as a spell of heavy rain on a cold front moves north to south during the day. The rapid invasion of Arctic air behind means a significant black ice risk on Thursday night. Confidence is rising that on Thursday night significant snow will fall in eastern England and during Friday significant snow is possible in Northern Ireland, Wales and western England.
Monday 20 December 2010 to Sunday 26 December 2010

More of the same
The pressure pattern remains the same: High pressure to our north; low pressure to our south with a resultant northeasterly airflow. So still cold. With frost by night, severe where snow lies and lasting all day for large parts of the UK. Quite a few snow showers are indicated this week leaving a few centimetres wherever they fall. Models suggest at least average (rainfall equivalent) snowfall wherever you live but I think the wind direction will determine where significant falls occur. Sunshine should be above expectations in western Britain so you can assume that snowfall will be rare in the same areas.

Posted By: South_West_Canary, Dec 13, 20:59:39