From the Grauniad

Of all the topsy-turvy weekends in this topsy-turvy Championship season, this weekend was the topsiest-turviest. The top three all lost ? again ? while seven of the bottom nine registered victories. Let's just recap: Rock-bottom Charlton got a point at high-flying everyone's-dark-horses Swansea (who have now got more draws at home than an underwear model on the take); second-bottom Southampton beat fourth-placed Cardiff at St Mary's; fourth-bottom Nottingham Forest won away at third-placed Reading; and fifth-bottom Plymouth won, also away, at leaders Wolves. Just for good measure, sixth-bottom Barnsley and seventh-bottom Watford also won, eighth-bottom Blackpool got a point at Bristol City, who, as we established last week, have been the Championship's form team since Christmas. All of which means third-bottom Norwich's home defeat by Coventry was a very bad result indeed.

With a quarter of the season still to go it's beginning to look like the 50-point threshold won't be enough this season. In the past 12 campaigns 50 points would have kept a team up in nine of them, with last season (Leicester were relegated with 52 points), 2003-04 (when Walsall went down with 51), and the statistical fly in the ointment of the 2004-05 season when Crewe stayed up with 50 points, but only on goal difference over Gillingham, the exceptions.

In the seven preceding seasons it didn't happen once. With the league so close predictions are particularly tough. Charlton will surely be starting next season in League One - with 12 games left they need at least six wins, something they've only just managed in 34 games thus far. Norwich also look particularly vulnerable. While managerial changes have seen improvement at Forest, Derby and Watford, the Canaries are now pondering the wisdom of axing Glenn Roeder in mid-January. Next season will mark the 50th anniversary of their last campaign in the third tier and, from speaking to a few yellow-and-green wearing acquaintances, there's a growing resignation that they will mark that anniversary with a return to that level. As for that third spot, Southampton, who have beaten Preston and Cardiff in their last two games, have an ugly run-in. Their trip to the City Ground on the final day of the season could be a relegation play-off.

Posted By: jafski, Mar 2, 15:46:28