Except...

That an event that is priced at 11/8 won't happen 500 times out of a 1000.

If they were true odds it would happen 283 times out of a 1000 and taking into account the bookmakers 'edge' (say 10%) it will actually happen 183 times out of 1000. In which case you'll be a sad punter.

I expect I've got something wrong in the maths but the principle stands up. The only way to really win is where there is 'value' in the odds (ie where the true odds are lower than those offered). Bet over time on value (however small and remember you'll also need to overcome the bookies edge) and you will win. Not many people have the knowledge to work out the true odds and bookies edges are very stingy, hence lots of rich bookies and lots of poor punters.

Posted By: Kangol Canary on March 14th 2008 at 13:14:31

Message Thread

fao shoddy (Betting) - SCC 28, Mar 14, 12:02:55
- Except... (Betting) - Kangol Canary, Mar 14, 13:14:31
  - Well, I'd say quite a happy punter (Betting) - BerlinCanary, Mar 14, 13:29:33
    - amazing how such a simple question (Betting) - SCC 28, Mar 14, 13:31:48
      - Well, I don't bet very often but it's simple maths at the end of the day (Betting) - BerlinCanary, Mar 14, 13:37:17
        
        exactly it's just maths (Betting) - SCC 28, Mar 14, 13:44:21
        
        Poker's different to horse racing though (Betting) - BerlinCanary, Mar 14, 14:35:25
  - what the hell are you on about? (Betting) - SCC 28, Mar 14, 13:21:56
    - 2/1 reflects 333 winners from 1000 (Betting) - SCC 28, Mar 14, 13:26:39
      - 11/8 would be 421 (Betting) - SCC 28, Mar 14, 13:30:32
- surely (Betting) - Tony Martin, Mar 14, 12:20:19
  - *shakes head* (n/m) (Betting) - SCC 28, Mar 14, 12:39:45
    - explain (n/m) (Betting) - Tony Martin, Mar 14, 12:51:58
      - don't lose means it wins (Betting) - SCC 28, Mar 14, 12:54:34
        
        ahh ok happy punter, i thought you were doing a trick question (n/m) (Betting) - Tony Martin, Mar 14, 12:56:05
        
        nope (Betting) - SCC 28, Mar 14, 13:00:43
        
        Bet big on shorts odds, over time you'll almost always be up. (n/m) (Betting) - tudders, Mar 14, 13:03:22
        
        well i don't agree with that (Betting) - SCC 28, Mar 14, 13:06:15
        
        Well yes, not just any short price obviously. (Betting) - tudders, Mar 14, 13:13:49
        
        No you are not (Betting) - Kangol Canary, Mar 14, 13:16:01
        
        I have, and don't entirely agree. (n/m) (Betting) - tudders, Mar 14, 13:19:14
        
        that's because he's written a load of randon nonsense (Betting) - SCC 28, Mar 14, 13:22:28
        
        random (n/m) (Betting) - SCC 28, Mar 14, 13:22:39

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