lump on job

Inter Milan to qualify, by my calculations, should be approximately a 39% chance tonight and the bookies and Betfair have all got their prices wrong.

I'll say why below but it should be obvious to those of us who work from football knowledge. Even those who just work the stats will notice at a glance that the 4.2 odds being offered are wrong for a 39% chance and much more like a 15-29% chance. This calcutes to an 87% banker with approx 65% of the bank being lunped on.

This is why.

The prices fail to take into account certain key factors that were missing in the first leg. The events there have got them confused.

Firstly, in Europe everyone knows that Mascherano is the key Liverpool player. That's why they were willing to spend all that money on him. The trouble for him tomorrow is that, with the players who didn't play in the first leg likely to return, Inter have a squad full of Argies who know exactly how he operates. Suazo, Cruz, Zanetti, Recoba and Cordoba all know his game inside out from the national team and will be able to snuff it out in the San Siro. He had the freedom of Anfield last week but won't be able to do the same in Italy.

Also, Torres did well last week but Walter Samuel wasn't playing. If he is back then him and Materrazi are going to handle him no problem. They kept David Villa quiet agaisnt Valencia last year and know how to handle Spanish ctrikers when playing together. Plus, Materrazi won't have to worry about a biased home referee like last week.

Remember, this is the European and Serie A champions that we are talking, not some mugs, but the prices don't reflect that. Carragher and Hypia did well at Anfield but against ten men they had no-one to mark at times. Zlatan still caused them the odd problem but you also have to assume that Adriano will come back (why didn't he play in the first match) and that is as good a partnership as you will get. Does anyone really expect these two paceless defenders to keep those two quiet all night.

Inter will be able to keep a very high line as the likes of Crouch and Kuyt means there is no pace to threaten behind them and Liverpool are going to struggle with that.

Inter have plenty of players with Premiership experience - Vieira, Dacourt, Materrazi, Gattuso, etc - and they know all about Liverpool. Liverpool don't have a single player with Serie A experience. That is what matters when the pressure is on.

Verdict: Priced up all wrong. Inter to qualify with a clean sheet against plodding Liverpool attack that won't be able to rely on the home crowd and playing ten men. Get on now or wait for the MUGS who will pile into Liverpool tomorrow pushing the 65% out to 72% (approx calculations) with a 2.9743 buy-back ratio to keep the layers in business and carpet sweepers taking the profits from high-end double break even backers in the long run.

Posted By: SCC 28 on March 11th 2008 at 10:46:38

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