I bet for a living............
The above is a useful introduction but a better example of finding value is using the current market price at sharp sportsbooks to guide what is fair value.
The market will adjust on certain bets as money comes in.
You need to be able to read the markets and books to understand what is moving the line.
Most people who estimate the price on a game know
LESS than the market and the sportsbooks.
Thats why most people lose over the long haul.
Respect the market when finding value.
Say Norwich is 2/1 to win a game at virtually every book including most of the sharp ones.
If you find one book offering 5/2 to 3/1 then thats almost certainly a value play.
Also anytime you can arbitrage/scalp a bet (play both sides and win money regardless of who wins) then obviously one side has huge value and the other is used to limit risk and variance.
Beating sports involves understanding math and probabilty not knowing sports.
Thats sounds strange but its absolutely 100% true.
Anybody picking games because they "like them" is never going to win long term.
They may win for a while but eventually the vig/juice the bookie charges will grind them down.
Posted By: usacanary on October 23rd 2007 at 17:21:10
Message Thread
- for thick cunts like snakey (Betting) - SCC 28, Oct 23, 16:33:08
- I bet for a living............ (Betting) - usacanary, Oct 23, 17:21:10
- too many words (n/m) (Betting) - pants, Oct 23, 16:41:01
- Where did you google that from ? (n/m) (Betting) - Snakey, Oct 23, 16:38:08
- the internet (n/m) (Betting) - SCC 28, Oct 23, 16:38:30
- now that IS value. (n/m) (Betting) - Snakey, Oct 23, 16:40:03
- FAO: SCC 28 (Betting) - Snakey, Oct 23, 16:43:15
- on that subject, dida is only serving a one match ban for dropping to the floor (Betting) - pants, Oct 23, 16:46:37
- makes him look a twat tho (Betting) - SCC 28, Oct 23, 16:52:36
- i think barcelona are a decent lay at 4/5 (Betting) - SCC 28, Oct 23, 16:46:06
- Agree but... (Betting) - Snakey, Oct 23, 16:47:17
- 1 home win in 5 tho (n/m) (Betting) - SCC 28, Oct 23, 16:48:35
- ummm. just fancy it tho. Scunny not that hot on the road bar Colchester. (n/m) (Betting) - Snakey, Oct 23, 17:04:06
- 1 home win in 5 tho (n/m) (Betting) - SCC 28, Oct 23, 16:48:35
- to see (n/m) (Betting) - SCC 28, Oct 23, 16:46:27
- Agree but... (Betting) - Snakey, Oct 23, 16:47:17
- on that subject, dida is only serving a one match ban for dropping to the floor (Betting) - pants, Oct 23, 16:46:37
- FAO: SCC 28 (Betting) - Snakey, Oct 23, 16:43:15
- now that IS value. (n/m) (Betting) - Snakey, Oct 23, 16:40:03
- the internet (n/m) (Betting) - SCC 28, Oct 23, 16:38:30
- one word summary: fractions (n/m) (Betting) - Hertz van Rental, Oct 23, 16:35:25
- or 'Troll' (n/m) (Betting) - Brandonio, Oct 23, 16:39:55
- Are you having a quiet day? (n/m) (Betting) - Bertie Biggins, Oct 23, 16:34:39
- you don't actually think he wrote that out do you? (Betting) - Brandonio, Oct 23, 16:39:01
- Give it up for SCC 28 (n/m) (Betting) - Bertie Biggins, Oct 23, 16:51:10
- haha very true! (n/m) (Betting) - SCC 28, Oct 23, 16:39:32
- you don't actually think he wrote that out do you? (Betting) - Brandonio, Oct 23, 16:39:01
- .... (Betting) - NCFC4life, Oct 23, 16:34:20
- mini hartson (n/m) (Betting) - pants, Oct 23, 16:42:18
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