Right. This Lebanon thing.

The last week I have been wondering exactly who stands to gain anything out of this war. Contrary to popular belief, wars do NOT start through "eye-for-an-eye" reprisals, incredibly rarely through religion (I doubt very much if religion was ever a real reason for a war) and certainly not for the "kidnapping" of two soldiers who were in all likelihood special forces stationed inside Lebanon.

I was also wondering why the US has been so slow to react, and why Condoleeza Rice cancelled her peacekeeping visit on the grounds that the Lebanese wanted an immediate, complete ceasefire (doesn't sound unreasonable does it ?).

It seems that the US has a vested interest in this war. They are supplying arms and hi-tech equipment to the Israelis and are certainly not openly quick to condemn the Israeli attacks. But what is it they gain ? Lebanon has no oil, has never threatened the US or US interests.

After thinking about it, the only reason I can see is the following. They want Syria. If Syria were attacked, they would very likely respond with attacks on Israel via Lebanese territory (air space or ground / sea).

However, Syria is bordered by Turkey which has recently been given the go-ahead for application to the European Union and therefore is kissing Western arses at the moment. It is bordered by Jordan with its Anglophile King and readiness to allow western forces to have temporary bases on its territory (e.g. first Gulf war). It is bordered by Iraq and the Golan Heights which are occupied by US and UNDOF. It has Cyprus to the west.

Basically, if the US or international peace-keeping forces are stationed in Lebanon, Syria is isolated, unable to mount attacks on many fronts against Israel (in fact it will be hard to make any direct attacks on Israel as the only direct route would be through the Golan Heights), while the US could attack from all around its borders.

I reckon the US are isolating Syria. I guess there isn't enough oil in Iraq.

Posted By: Steve in Holland on August 1st 2006 at 13:04:33

Message Thread

Right. This Lebanon thing. (General Chat) - Steve in Holland, Aug 1, 13:04:33
- Having read the rest of it (General Chat) - pants, Aug 1, 13:29:03
- Your first paragraph, about the two soldiers, I agree, NO ONE is that popular (General Chat) - pants, Aug 1, 13:27:11
  - Not sure if that was irony pants (General Chat) - romayellow, Aug 1, 13:34:33
    - The first world war was going to happen whatever (General Chat) - pants, Aug 1, 13:37:21
      - Pants (General Chat) - romayellow, Aug 1, 13:40:01
        
        WWI had as much to do with the Russians mobilising their army on a whim (n/m) (General Chat) - Steve in Holland, Aug 1, 13:42:59
        
        and germany building the berlin to baghdad railway, to gain oil (General Chat) - pants, Aug 1, 13:49:36
  - You say don't you know, I say you don't know... (General Chat) - Brandonio, Aug 1, 13:30:56
  - it's the same (General Chat) - pants, Aug 1, 13:27:30
- But what about from an Isreal point of view. Put yourself in their position of a state... (General Chat) - Norfolk Coast, Aug 1, 13:15:48
  - Which nuclear state are you talking about ? And which terrorists ? Were the (General Chat) - Steve in Holland, Aug 1, 13:18:49
    - Iran (n/m) (General Chat) - Norfolk Coast, Aug 1, 13:23:42
      - and why are mullahs so powerful in Iran?. (General Chat) - mr carra, Aug 1, 13:36:11
      - They have NO nuclear weapons. (n/m) (General Chat) - Steve in Holland, Aug 1, 13:31:25
        
        Unlike Israel (n/m) (General Chat) - Steve in Holland, Aug 1, 13:31:58
  - The IRA bombed England (General Chat) - WorthyHatesFans, Aug 1, 13:18:01
    - Thats because Northern Ireland belongs to the BRITISH! (General Chat) - Worthy is King, Aug 1, 13:19:47
      - No need for that (n/m) (General Chat) - Brom, Aug 1, 13:24:03
      - I think it's just an excuse (n/m) (General Chat) - Duck and Chips, Aug 1, 13:20:52
        
        I think Hamas and Hezbollah have given Israel a fair excuse for invading (General Chat) - phrankin, Aug 1, 13:23:13
    - exactly! (n/m) (General Chat) - Duck and Chips, Aug 1, 13:18:44
- Its chuffing long, but gives you the insight.... (General Chat) - fal5taff, Aug 1, 13:12:55

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