I didnt analyze 2nd too much once I figured out....
the crazy PPG needed. Its an almost impossible task from our current position. we need probably need a 20 game unbeaten run in there to have chance (including not many draws!)
I know where you are going and I agree FWIW but its even more complicated than people think.
I did think about doing the , how many points would it take to beat 9th place scenario and its not too different in reality because the groupings are really tight in the 7th to 10th range.
There are often multiple teams that miss out on the playoffs by a few points every season, the closer you get to middle of the table the tighter it gets.
The question everyone should ask is.....
What is 8th place worth...... obviously we dont have data but we know from the 6th to 3rd playoffs, the best teams win more often. One would have to assume that with an extra game to play, the odds of promotion from 8th are much smaller than 6th.
We may never see an 8th place club promoted in our lifetimes or if we do it might turn out to be an outlier.
Posted By: usacanary on November 4th 2026 at 18:05:32
Message Thread
- The USAC historical Promotion analysis. Tilterz will be Tilted. (NCFC) - usacanary, Nov 4, 15:46:46
- That’s a bit depressing but thanks (n/m) (NCFC) - Old Git, Nov 4, 21:21:53
- When looking at points needed for 2nd / 8th…. (NCFC) - SimonOTBC, Nov 4, 17:43:16
- I didnt analyze 2nd too much once I figured out.... (NCFC) - usacanary, Nov 4, 18:05:32
- Just an added thought......... (NCFC) - usacanary, Nov 4, 18:14:12
- Yep - and as you say, if we aren’t regularly beating them, there’s no point anyway (NCFC) - SimonOTBC, Nov 4, 18:32:50
- You have to be careful about cherry picking data. (NCFC) - usacanary, Nov 4, 18:46:36
- Yep - and as you say, if we aren’t regularly beating them, there’s no point anyway (NCFC) - SimonOTBC, Nov 4, 18:32:50
- Just an added thought......... (NCFC) - usacanary, Nov 4, 18:14:12
- I didnt analyze 2nd too much once I figured out.... (NCFC) - usacanary, Nov 4, 18:05:32
- Have you had your tea yet? (n/m) (NCFC) - tudders, Nov 4, 17:40:55
- Bit early, did just have lunch (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Nov 4, 18:07:24
- Bristol away Saturday, a Wrath special! Yet another 12:30ko I see, crazy. (n/m) (NCFC) - DrDublin, Nov 4, 16:38:10
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