FWIW there are Sportsbetting stratergies that are +EV over huge samples.
One is Wong teasers in the NFL if they cross the key numbers.
They are still profitable but in the early 2000s we crushed on these when so many games were decided by 3 and 7
(before the newer overtime rules)
Books used to offer incredible odds because they didnt know the math of the distribution of results.
Here is rough outline of the math. Stick with Wong Teasers only (FWIW I am in some of Stanford Wongs/ John Fergusons books)
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Posted By: usacanary on June 30th 2026 at 17:07:35
Message Thread
- Did anyone mention this... (Other Football) - usacanary, Jun 30, 12:41:45
- If you get a warehouse full of people to toss coins (Other Football) - Under soil heating, Jun 30, 14:09:36
- FWIW there are Sportsbetting stratergies that are +EV over huge samples. (Other Football) - usacanary, Jun 30, 17:07:35
- Yep, pretty much survival bias in a nutshell. (n/m) (Other Football) - usacanary, Jun 30, 16:56:46
- Given he set up the model to prove how hard it is to predict the winner.. (Other Football) - SimonOTBC, Jun 30, 13:20:14
- TBF, even he admits it's bollocks... (Other Football) - usacanary, Jun 30, 13:28:25
- That went well (n/m) (Other Football) - fleckmatic, Jun 30, 13:14:59
- If you get a warehouse full of people to toss coins (Other Football) - Under soil heating, Jun 30, 14:09:36
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