well they give probabilities for different outcomes, so not obvious what 'being correct'
means.
But they themselves say:
"How much faith should we have in these predictions? Our projections are not far from bookmakers’ odds—except for a lower winning probability for England—and our model would have performed quite well at previous World Cups (for example, when measured with the goal difference). That said, the model’s statistical power remains limited—not a surprise given football’s inherent unpredictability."
Posted By: Tricky Hawes on May 31st 2026 at 16:04:11
Message Thread
- Talking of the WC, every tournament the economists at Goldman Sachs model the tournament (Other Football) - Tricky Hawes, May 31, 15:53:09
- And how many times have they been correct in the past? (n/m) (Other Football) - Legacy Fan, May 31, 16:02:10
- well they give probabilities for different outcomes, so not obvious what 'being correct' (Other Football) - Tricky Hawes, May 31, 16:04:11
- Ah. So never then (n/m) (Other Football) - Legacy Fan, May 31, 16:15:39
- Someone piss on your Cheerios this morning? (Other Football) - Tricky Hawes, May 31, 16:30:28
- Ah. So never then (n/m) (Other Football) - Legacy Fan, May 31, 16:15:39
- 🙈 (n/m) (Other Football) - SCC 28, May 31, 16:03:31
- well they give probabilities for different outcomes, so not obvious what 'being correct' (Other Football) - Tricky Hawes, May 31, 16:04:11
- And how many times have they been correct in the past? (n/m) (Other Football) - Legacy Fan, May 31, 16:02:10
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