Iran.... Interesting read
The National Intelligence Council of the United States concluded in a secret report that even a large-scale US-Israeli attack on Iran is unlikely to overthrow the firmly entrenched military-clerical apparatus of the Islamic Republic. This information was confirmed (User Posted Link by The Washington Post by three sources. The report's conclusions call into question Trump's stated plan to "cleanse" the Iranian leadership and replace it with a ruler of his own choosing.
The report, prepared about a week before the start of the US-Israeli war, considered scenarios for succession in the event of both a limited operation against the Iranian leadership and a large-scale strike on the leadership and state institutions. In both cases, the intelligence agency concluded that the clerical and military apparatus of Iran would respond to the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei according to protocols ensuring the continuity of power.
❗️ The likelihood of the fragmented Iranian opposition taking control of the country was assessed by the intelligence agency as "unlikely".
The National Intelligence Council (NIC) consists of experienced analysts and prepares secret assessments that reflect the collective opinion of the 18 US intelligence agencies. However, the White House did not confirm whether the president was familiar with the report before making a decision on a military operation.
Susan Meloni, an expert on Iran and vice president of the Brookings Institution, noted that the NIC's prognosis about the resilience of the Iranian institutions is based on a deep understanding of the Islamic Republic's system.
💬This seems like a well-reasoned assessment of the Iranian system, its institutions and processes that have been formed over many years, she said.
The report, it seems, did not consider other scenarios, including the introduction of American ground troops into Iran or the arming of Iranian Kurds to foment an uprising. It was not possible to determine whether the large-scale campaign described in the report fully coincides with current operations.
The process of replacing the supreme leader, as envisaged by the report, is currently taking place, but under pressure from intensive US-Israeli aerial and maritime bombardments. However, the replacement of the supreme leader depends on the clerical body - the Assembly of Experts. However, members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and other representatives of the security forces also play a significant role.
There is an active discussion about the possibility that the Assembly could appoint the son of the deceased leader - Mojtaba Khamenei. However, there has been no official announcement yet. The IRGC is actively promoting Mojtaba's candidacy, but is encountering resistance from other influential figures, including Ali Larijani, the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, a Western security official said.
Trump previously told journalists that the younger Khamenei was "incompetent" and "frivolous", and that he did not want Iranian leaders who would simply "restart" the nuclear program and ballistic missiles.
💬 The fate of Iran, which is more valuable than life, will be determined only by the proud Iranian people, and not by Jeffrey Epstein's gang, - Galibaf wrote in X.
Current and former US officials say there are no signs of a mass popular uprising in Iran or significant splits in the government or security structures that would lead to a regime change.
💬 There is no other force in Iran that could resist the remnants of the regime's power, - said Meloni of the Brookings Institution. - Even if they cannot effectively project this power to their neighbors, they are still able to dominate internally
Since the clerical and military apparatus of Iran retains control, experts believe that Trump's opportunities to dictate political changes are limited.
💬 Kneeling before Trump would be contrary to everything they believe in, - said Holly Dagres, a senior research fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
Posted By: promethian1 on March 7th 2026 at 13:55:41
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- Iran.... Interesting read (General Chat) - promethian1, Mar 7, 13:55:41
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