Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Taleb

great book BTW....can teach you a lot about life and markets. (football transfers are a market)

Think of how many promoted teams have spent a ton of money and succeeded........then think of how many have spent a ton of money and failed.......

Also a few have succeeded briefly and then failed....

Then there are a few who have done the impossible and succeeded (stayed up for a number of seasons) while also selling their better players.
The sample size is becoming significant for Brighton, Brentford and Bournemouth.
(all through various manager changes)
All have a similar model of proprietary analysis.
Their dollar spent per PL point has been amongst the best.
They also know that all PL points are not created equally.
Winning the PL points from point 30 to point 40 are the hardest for smaller market teams.
Most relegated teams get over 20 points in the PL but they are so far away from the 30-40 points needed in terms of quality.

Posted By: usacanary on January 2nd 2026 at 14:33:43

Message Thread

Sunderland- HTF are they doing it? (Other Football) - Nelsons final flanel, Jan 2, 08:50:58
- Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Taleb (Other Football) - usacanary, Jan 2, 14:33:43
- Not claiming to have conducted a deep investigation (Other Football) - Under soil heating, Jan 2, 10:20:09
  - The Brentford model (Other Football) - mr carra, Jan 2, 10:28:33
    - This. I've watched them a few times this year (Other Football) - Tricky Hawes, Jan 2, 10:40:29
  - Btw (Other Football) - Under soil heating, Jan 2, 10:20:45
- Sheffield United did the same... (Other Football) - usacanary, Jan 2, 09:45:12
- Encouraging to see it can be done (n/m) (Other Football) - Knitted Jesus, Jan 2, 08:53:07

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