He’s taken the core Labour vote for granted

That never works out well for any party which does it and his approval ratings are as low as they’ve ever been. More Labour voters now disapprove of him than approve of him.

It’s a mistake to write the man off. He’s reversed that kind of thing before.

But the problem is we still don’t know what Labour is for. Not being the Tories was enough in 2024. It won’t be in 2029. It isn’t growth and it isn’t net zero. What is it? I genuinely can’t tell.

Meanwhile, however you rationalise each of them individually, the narrative that he’s come after the old, the disabled, trans people and the world’s poor, and used racist dogwhistles - a PM’s speech is not improvised and no way did they not know they were calling back to Enoch Powell - is much, much easier to write than the narrative that he’s isn’t.

The Tories have beaten themselves and beating reform is about painting and delivering a positive future vision which addresses the frustrations and sense of being ignored the reform voters feel without pandering to Farage’s idiotic/racist “solutions”.

The own goal on taxes doesn’t help. If the Tories had won last year they too would have had to raise taxes. Neither of them was honest about it. World events gave them a great excuse to row back on that but they chose not to. Hunt set elephant traps for them and they’ve walked into both of them (employee NI cuts that he knew were unsustainable but he also knew it wouldn’t be him trying, and “Will you guarantee not to raise income tax/VAT/etc”).

The best stuff Starmer has done is foreign policy: Ukraine, dealing with Trump, stabilising relations with the EU etc. Elections are neither won nor lost through the Foreign Office though.

I voted Labour last time. I will struggle to do so next time. A quick glance at my book face feed suggests I’m very far from alone in that.

Posted By: Old Man on May 16th 2025 at 18:53:02

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