xG over the past 9 PL seasons has....
overestimated goals scored every single season.
That's a pretty big sample size.
As an example its claiming based on chances the whole of the PL should have scored 1142 goals this past season yet only scored 1038 (9.1% difference)
xG comers from an EGV (expected goal value)
Clearly if this is off as much as 10% overall (and much higher with poor teams) then clearly its not a good predictor of team strength or performance.
If you look at the PL bottom 4 teams and bottom 10 teams you will see an obvious pattern where it totally overvalues bad clubs. (every single season)
If we look at this seasons bottom 4 points.
17 Everton 36 40.71+4.71
18 Leicester 34 45.07+11.07
19 Leeds 31 40.58+9.58
20 Southampton 25 36.47+11.47
It always hugely overvalues the very worst teams
(Feel free to go back through the last 9 seasons)
Again, a points total is a much better indicator of how good a "team" is, how good the strikers are, how good the defenders and goalkeepers are.
Lionel Messi has “outperformed” his xG prediction throughout his whole career.
That's a hell of a sample size to be lucky!
Posted By: usacanary on May 28th 2023 at 20:53:30
Message Thread
- xG over the past 9 PL seasons has.... (Other Football) - usacanary, May 28, 20:53:30
- Surely you would absolutely expect all the teams at the bottom to be underperforming xg (Other Football) - Knitted Jesus, May 28, 23:37:40
- You do realize you just made my point for me...... (Other Football) - usacanary, May 28, 23:48:22
- Not sure if this is a wind up or you’re just thick as fuck lol (n/m) (Other Football) - SCC 28, May 29, 01:49:02
- You do realize you just made my point for me...... (Other Football) - usacanary, May 28, 23:48:22
- “The table doesn’t lie” but using a million words. Thanks. (n/m) (Other Football) - Legacy Fan, May 28, 22:40:14
- The irony is that some of these "experts" keep telling us it does lie. (Other Football) - usacanary, May 28, 23:41:13
- You really haven’t taken your recent owning very well (Other Football) - SCC 28, May 29, 01:52:00
- The irony is that some of these "experts" keep telling us it does lie. (Other Football) - usacanary, May 28, 23:41:13
- Surely you would absolutely expect all the teams at the bottom to be underperforming xg (Other Football) - Knitted Jesus, May 28, 23:37:40
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