I know many world class professional gamblers.....

and they use a multi-tude of stats and analysis to make predictions.
xG is not one of them.

Even if you compare the exact same quality of chance.

Give the same quality of chance to Harry Kane and Adam Idah.

You would expect Kane to convert vastly more often than Adam.

Yet both teams will get the same xG

What xG does is actually overvalue poor teams and poor strikers.

Clearly there is a relationship between chances and goals but to make predictions on how good a team is you need better statistics.

I know this might be shocking (not) but League position and points is actually a pretty good indicator of how good a team is over a decent sample.

Posted By: usacanary on May 23rd 2023 at 15:20:59

Message Thread

Leicester Leeds Everton - All 3 will probably win on the last day? (n/m) (Other Football) - Lentil Weaver, May 23, 01:58:43
- I’d imagine the chances of three of the four worst teams in the league all (Other Football) - Legacy Fan, May 23, 12:14:20
- Looking at the other two's fixtures I would not be happy at Smith's approach last night if (Other Football) - Jim, May 23, 10:11:04
  - Neil Adams at Chelsea came to mind (n/m) (Other Football) - Ken Breadstick, May 23, 13:07:35
  - Paging USAC (Other Football) - CWC, May 23, 10:33:42
    - Well they’re not relying on Bournemouth winning now (n/m) (Other Football) - SCC 28, May 23, 10:36:55
      - I'd say if a maths bod worked out all the odds before the game (Other Football) - jamesward, May 23, 10:53:52
        
        To be fair this is decent analysis but..... (Other Football) - usacanary, May 23, 14:40:21
  - Newcastle have only lost twice at home all season (Other Football) - SCC 28, May 23, 10:13:53
    - xG of 0.00 (n/m) (Other Football) - Adster, May 23, 10:20:05
      - Pope made a great save in stoppage time (n/m) (Other Football) - SCC 28, May 23, 10:27:43
        
        Was going by something Brandonio posted (Other Football) - Adster, May 23, 11:00:02
        
        Before the pope save… (Other Football) - SCC 28, May 23, 14:40:32
        
        I keep telling you idiots that xG is not scientific as... (Other Football) - usacanary, May 23, 13:01:26
        
        That was before the pope save lol (Other Football) - SCC 28, May 23, 14:41:08
        
        Or he posted it mid-match you banana (n/m) (Other Football) - Adster, May 23, 13:17:56
        
        Again you plebs ignore the main point. (Other Football) - usacanary, May 23, 13:54:06
        
        Lol wonderful self own 🤣 (n/m) (Other Football) - SCC 28, May 23, 14:41:52
        
        xG is shit and you worship at the feet of it. (Other Football) - usacanary, May 23, 14:55:18
        
        Deflecting from your self own I see (Other Football) - SCC 28, May 23, 15:35:27
        
        It's imperfect, for some of the reasons you say, but useful for long-term trends (Other Football) - jamesward, May 23, 14:58:58
        
        I know many world class professional gamblers..... (Other Football) - usacanary, May 23, 15:20:59
        
        You really are quite upset lol (n/m) (Other Football) - SCC 28, May 23, 15:36:01
        
        This is you.... (Other Football) - usacanary, May 23, 18:22:35
        
        Valid point (Other Football) - jamesward, May 23, 15:27:11
        
        It applies equally in the champs. (Other Football) - usacanary, May 23, 18:34:23
        
        Another essay (Other Football) - SCC 28, May 23, 20:33:45
        
        No, I got your point (n/m) (Other Football) - Adster, May 23, 14:31:20
    - Nearly a masterclass from Deano and Shakey. (Other Football) - Trent_Canary, May 23, 10:18:32
      - Exactly, let down by the bloke who hit the keeper (Other Football) - SCC 28, May 23, 10:28:32
- I think they'll all lose in a spectacularly insipid style (n/m) (Other Football) - CWC, May 23, 09:58:44
- I'd quite like Leicester to go a goal up early to set the crowd (Other Football) - jamesward, May 23, 09:54:11
- Everton will get a win, scrappy goal from a corner late on (n/m) (Other Football) - Gazzaman, May 23, 09:47:38
  - Then a pitch invasion with multiple 57 year old women in headlocks. (n/m) (Other Football) - protheroe fitzgibbon, May 23, 10:57:05
  - Everton have another last day "gimme" to get themselves out of trouble (n/m) (Other Football) - Jim, May 23, 10:11:31
- They 3 of them combined have only won 22 from 111 games in the league this season (Other Football) - seminated_woolly, May 23, 08:49:27
- Relegation (Other Football) - letsbehavinyou, May 23, 07:25:40
- everton will win (Other Football) - lord_luck, May 23, 04:10:57

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