I know - but I think that's why it can sometimes be misleading
the firms that are calculating their own XG to beat the bookies and which sell their data to professional teams (e.g. Smartodds) all evaluate the quality of the chance, not the quality of the final shot. They rate a shot from 30 yards is rated the same as a corner (i.e. not threatening). Whereas a 2v1 break or 3v2 break will generally be seen as a better opportunity, even if it fizzles out.
Ignoring great opportunities that don't finish in a shot means it doesn't necessarily reflect who had the better chances. For an extreme example, would you not give any XG for that Pires/Henry penalty against Leeds, just because it didn't result in a shot?
Posted By: Mecagoenti on October 22nd 2022 at 17:23:55
Message Thread
- Lukcy to come away with a point in the end. (n/m) (NCFC) - AstroCanary, Oct 22, 16:58:05
- How do you work that out Einstein? We missed a penalty and could easily have won it (n/m) (NCFC) - Boyer, Oct 22, 17:01:47
- Erm….I’m guessing it’s a reference to mcburnie missing a sitter in injury time? (NCFC) - SimonOTBC, Oct 22, 17:03:43
- And we got smashed on xG even with the pen award (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Oct 22, 17:04:51
- I think that's a bit misleading today (NCFC) - Mecagoenti, Oct 22, 17:07:34
- We had loads of great breaks (NCFC) - SCC 28, Oct 22, 17:10:55
- They're not chances (NCFC) - jamesward, Oct 22, 17:09:14
- But from an expected goals point of view (NCFC) - Mecagoenti, Oct 22, 17:13:48
- It counts the shots (NCFC) - SCC 28, Oct 22, 17:16:49
- I know - but I think that's why it can sometimes be misleading (NCFC) - Mecagoenti, Oct 22, 17:23:55
- That pen would have very high xG (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Oct 22, 17:39:28
- I know - but I think that's why it can sometimes be misleading (NCFC) - Mecagoenti, Oct 22, 17:23:55
- It counts the shots (NCFC) - SCC 28, Oct 22, 17:16:49
- But from an expected goals point of view (NCFC) - Mecagoenti, Oct 22, 17:13:48
- I think that's a bit misleading today (NCFC) - Mecagoenti, Oct 22, 17:07:34
- And we got smashed on xG even with the pen award (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Oct 22, 17:04:51
- Erm….I’m guessing it’s a reference to mcburnie missing a sitter in injury time? (NCFC) - SimonOTBC, Oct 22, 17:03:43
- How do you work that out Einstein? We missed a penalty and could easily have won it (n/m) (NCFC) - Boyer, Oct 22, 17:01:47
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