The problem is...........

You can be fooled by xGA and xA over small samples.

Lets say a team has a certain xGA above their current number.
Are they unlucky or do they have lower quality players who don't take the chances as well?

If you want to know how much better one team is than another then look at mature betting markets close to game time.
Every possible analysis has been done to shape those lines into place.
Look at big line moves which don't correlate to any injury announcements.

Posted By: usacanary on January 6th 2022 at 16:51:29

Message Thread

My prediction on how many points it will take to stay up this year. (NCFC) - usacanary, Jan 6, 16:31:52
- OK found a PPG article for this season. (NCFC) - usacanary, Jan 6, 16:59:15
  - also if you read the article they fuck up the numbers. (NCFC) - usacanary, Jan 6, 17:03:32
- 9 (NCFC) - Cardiff Canary, Jan 6, 16:51:01
- PPG is so 2019 (NCFC) - Ken Dodds Dads Dog, Jan 6, 16:36:47
  - And the xGA and xA (n/m) (NCFC) - jamesward, Jan 6, 16:37:43
    - The problem is........... (NCFC) - usacanary, Jan 6, 16:51:29
    - Oh yeah of course, that too, for sure. Uh huh. (NCFC) - Ken Dodds Dads Dog, Jan 6, 16:38:59
      - In our situation, it's more about the xAaGh. (n/m) (NCFC) - camcan, Jan 6, 17:01:43
        
        More like Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Jan 6, 17:04:44

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