How accurate is xG?

And I suppose it may be more accurate in respect of a group of 20 teams, than in respect of any one team? It would be interesting to know what our xG would be if you used the data of the bottom 10 teams - presumably it would go down, because they're less likely to convert any given chance? So actual and expected would converge.
Or something.

Posted By: paulg on October 7th 2021 at 13:07:02

Message Thread

Bit of an outlier (NCFC) - SCC 28, Oct 7, 10:41:32
- wow that is quite telling really things can really only get better (n/m) (NCFC) - pinkney, Oct 7, 10:49:20
  - That’s not really true 😂 (n/m) (NCFC) - SimonOTBC, Oct 7, 11:17:35
- xG explains the issue as quality of chances created, doesn't it? (NCFC) - SimonOTBC, Oct 7, 10:44:41
  - Should have scored 6 instead of 2 though (NCFC) - SCC 28, Oct 7, 10:49:00
    - How accurate is xG? (NCFC) - paulg, Oct 7, 13:07:02
      - as in (NCFC) - paulg, Oct 7, 13:19:20
        
        Yes, it's just an average (NCFC) - jamesward, Oct 7, 13:21:05
        
        A Prem standard average presumably? (NCFC) - paulg, Oct 7, 14:21:39
        
        Don't know which leagues / games were used to work it out tbh (NCFC) - jamesward, Oct 7, 14:26:29
        
        Pukki used to regularly outscore his xG (NCFC) - SCC 28, Oct 7, 13:23:11
        
        Maybe he was in a different division, measured against a different standard? (NCFC) - paulg, Oct 7, 14:23:10
        
        In the prem… (NCFC) - SCC 28, Oct 7, 14:51:24
        
        It's certainly (NCFC) - paulg, Oct 7, 15:05:25
    - That’s mildly encouraging isn’t it … (NCFC) - loz, Oct 7, 11:03:26

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