Being as this is an election day, I'm going to make a political post.

I think there will be a majority conservative government. I dont think it will be a large majority however.

I think this because of how the tories vote has held up during the campaign since the brexit party stood down in tory held seats.

The tories also have had strong numbers in wales and scotland, labour not doing at all well there. See also many northern constituencies.

It seems that the labour party is gaining votes from people who voted to remain in the EU - there are of course plenty of them.

Should the tories not win an outright majority, they will remain the largest party by far and I think would continue to govern as a minority government. If it is tight, I can see the libdems propping up the government in return for a referendum on the tory deal.

When a tory government campaigned to remain the EU, they lost 52/48. I think with the 'vote leave' team at the heart of government, and actively campaigning to leave - with 'the deal', they would win the campaign.

I don't see a scottish separatist / labour 'coalition' having legs. They couldn't get anything done.

Posted By: shoddy on December 12th 2019 at 09:02:37

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