I think it'll be an outcome along the lines of this article:

User Posted Link

Hung parliament but with the Tory party less rebellious and easier to control. Fewer Lab rebels.

Probably enough to pass Johnson's deal, but that's the current situation anyway (if he can just get it to a straight vote, which is possible if the EU refuse to extend further)

It's all to play for.

Johnson will get his majority if he can keep the Brexit Party vote down.
Corbyn will get his majority if he can convince Lib Dem and Lab voters to vote tactically in the right places (won't happen though)
Libs will take some Con marginals and maybe one or two Lab seats.
SNP will take most of the Scottish Con seats.
DUP will lose one or two.

Will come down to how many seats Johnson can take off Labour, but I think it'll be a hung parliament again, just with a slightly different balance of power and 'maybe' Libs and SNP having more of a say than the DUP/ERG over the direction of the future EU relationship.

The poll leads for Johnson won't translate into a uniform swing so doesn't really tell us much other than not many people think Corbyn is doing a great job.

Posted By: CWC on October 29th 2019 at 12:15:26

Message Thread

Am I wrong in thinking it’ll be clear a Tory majority?! (General Chat) - Steve in Holland, Oct 29, 11:27:24
- But what of the children? (n/m) (General Chat) - protheroe fitzgibbon, Oct 29, 12:42:41
  - Save the children! (n/m) (General Chat) - DrDublin, Oct 29, 12:43:41
    - What about the elephants? (n/m) (General Chat) - Adster, Oct 29, 15:00:14
- Front benches and whips resigning on Labour side apparently (n/m) (General Chat) - DrDublin, Oct 29, 12:36:07
  - What a shitshow (n/m) (General Chat) - duke of york, Oct 29, 13:04:59
- I think it'll be an outcome along the lines of this article: (General Chat) - CWC, Oct 29, 12:15:26
- that's the outcome most think most likely (General Chat) - paulg, Oct 29, 11:53:40
- Sadly, I think the Tories will walk it :-( (General Chat) - Timmy_Goat, Oct 29, 11:53:00
  - The ball game had changed. (General Chat) - MORDENCANARY, Oct 29, 15:58:10
- Huge volatility in the polls (General Chat) - duke of york, Oct 29, 11:34:37
  - Boris has played a blinder (General Chat) - Joe Strimmer, Oct 29, 11:49:21
    - Perhaps Corbyn has? Boris wins, Brexit happens...total shit show....another election (n/m) (General Chat) - BSE Canary, Oct 29, 11:57:51
      - Corbyn will be gone by then though (n/m) (General Chat) - duke of york, Oct 29, 11:58:51
        
        I doubt Corbyn will win his own constituency (General Chat) - Timmy_Goat, Oct 29, 12:00:26
        
        Amazing if they both did (n/m) (General Chat) - duke of york, Oct 29, 12:01:55
        
        Swinson could too (General Chat) - CWC, Oct 29, 12:28:18
        
        Good point! (General Chat) - Timmy_Goat, Oct 29, 12:34:10
        
        I have lots of friends in that constituency (General Chat) - paulg, Oct 29, 12:05:00
  - But I’m any case won’t they be handing them a majority they currently don’t have? (n/m) (General Chat) - Steve in Holland, Oct 29, 11:38:21
    - That's the risk (General Chat) - duke of york, Oct 29, 11:41:49
      - we can't have years and years of paralysis though (General Chat) - paulg, Oct 29, 11:57:58
      - But yes, I think they'll get a majority (General Chat) - duke of york, Oct 29, 11:45:14

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