If you randomly simulate every possible outcome of each of the 380 games throughout the

premier league season where each team has a 1/3 chance of W D or L each match then the average points needed to finish 17th and hence stay up is 43.3 (based on 10,000 simulations of all 380 games).

Posted By: essexcanaryOTBC on August 11th 2019 at 13:53:45

Message Thread

Points target: If all teams had equal probability of WDL each match 40 pts = survival prob (NCFC) - essexcanaryOTBC, Aug 11, 13:39:35
- Well, if you put it that way you maybe correct but (NCFC) - emmaroyds, Aug 11, 13:50:23
  - If you randomly simulate every possible outcome of each of the 380 games throughout the (NCFC) - essexcanaryOTBC, Aug 11, 13:53:45
    - That's taking no account of skill or ability then? (NCFC) - tudders, Aug 11, 14:03:37
      - Not wasted. I'm using it as a base for something else (NCFC) - essexcanaryOTBC, Aug 11, 14:16:24
    - and getting the magic 40 pt mark has a very low likelihood of being enough (n/m) (NCFC) - essexcanaryOTBC, Aug 11, 13:54:13
- Surely you’d need well over 40 (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Aug 11, 13:45:16
  - 38 points is normally good enough (n/m) (NCFC) - Thegelman, Aug 11, 13:49:57
    - When the teams are of different standard (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Aug 11, 13:56:33
  - Best estimate is 43.4 pts to stay up (17th) if every team has equal probability of WDL (NCFC) - essexcanaryOTBC, Aug 11, 13:49:18
- What? (n/m) (NCFC) - duke of york, Aug 11, 13:45:15
  - Here (NCFC) - essexcanaryOTBC, Aug 11, 13:49:33

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