who knows

Not all countries will have seen the same advice. Let’s assume it came from the US – there is intel they will not share with anyone else; there is intel they will share with the UK but no-one else, there is intel they will share with Five Eyes countries and no-one else, or NATO and no-one else, etc etc etc. Each intelligence agency then has to analysse what has been shared and draw their own conclusions (which my be more or less risk adverse than the US conclusions, based on their own information).

Delta may or may not be ‘safe’ – but perhaps the US risk assessment is acceptable for those airlines based on their knowledge of their security practices and how many air marshals are on each flight. Perhaps the intel is actually very specific to certain airlines/countries but the US is less bothered about upsetting local governments by having such a targeted ban.

Different countries and different airlines and different airports will have different levels of security measures and different countries will have different risk assessments of those security measures.

Maybe connecting flights are deemed less of a risk given the additional security measures that they'd have to go through in transit. Maybe they are deliberately leaving open certain routes to monitor what the reaction is from whoever it is that they are monitoring.

Maybe it's all utter guesswork based on dodgy intelligence and there is no threat at all, and what we are seeign is each country's best guess.

TBH I don’t know (and don’t particularly care) why the approaches are seemingly rather inconsistent, but the idea that it’s some form of US economic warfare seems rather remoter than all of the other possibilities.

I know it's Trump that's in charge, but come on. The antipathy between him and the intelligence agencies is obvious - if it was a made up ploy we would get all sorts of leaks and rebuttals.

Posted By: CWC on March 22nd 2017 at 13:29:39

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