So basically the sample size isn't big enough

If the entire population predicted where each team would finish in the league we would be the (20-n+1)th favourites to win the league if we were nth favourites to get relegated.

But because the punters that bet on the winning team and relegated teams aren't enough to produce efficient bookmaking markets (law of large numbers, central limit theorem etc) and/or aren't consistent in their betting in relation to which teams they think will get relegated vs. which will win the league (I could bet on Chelsea to win the league and in a separate bet, bet on them to get relegated too)

Posted By: essexcanaryOTBC on September 13th 2015 at 17:28:41

Message Thread

We are 5th favourites to be relegated (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Sep 13, 15:24:04
- And therefore also 16th favourites to win the league? (NCFC) - essexcanaryOTBC, Sep 13, 15:25:42
  - That would be a totally incorrect conclusion to make (NCFC) - SCC 28, Sep 13, 15:29:23
    - And why is that then? If we are 5th favourites to get relegated why are we not also 16th (NCFC) - essexcanaryOTBC, Sep 13, 15:33:37
      - There isn't a strict correlation (NCFC) - SCC 28, Sep 13, 15:41:21
        
        So basically the sample size isn't big enough (NCFC) - essexcanaryOTBC, Sep 13, 17:28:41
        
        there is a coorelation though.......... (NCFC) - usacanary, Sep 13, 15:50:36
        
        That's why I said strict (NCFC) - SCC 28, Sep 13, 15:56:52
        
        To make it clearer (NCFC) - SCC 28, Sep 13, 15:49:16

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