quick laymans explanation for those interested.

imagine you played a game, it cost 1 pound a ticket

1 in every 10 tickets is a winner and pays back 11 pounds

meaning you will lose 90% of the time.... would you play?

It should be obvious that its insanely profitable to keep playing for as long as they let you play as for every pound you outlay you make a profit of 10p

Back to sports betting...........

If we assume the market value for a game is X and we can get X+10% then in the long run we will win our expected value (EV)

Basically if you know what you are looking for you can find numbers that are "off" You can also estimate how far off they are and use Kelly criterion to bet size based on % advantage.
(warning math link)

User Posted Link

Posted By: usacanary on August 9th 2014 at 22:31:43

Message Thread

Anybody here got a bet365 account they don't want/use (Betting) - wolfio, Aug 9, 19:46:37
- You can have mine for ?50 (Betting) - lurd, Aug 9, 23:12:01
  - Tempting tbf (Betting) - lurd, Aug 9, 23:28:12
    - No. you can remove your card from the account (Betting) - wolfio, Aug 9, 23:32:42
  - ?40 and 0% deal (n/m) (Betting) - wolfio, Aug 9, 23:20:04
- strange request (Betting) - Charles21, Aug 9, 19:49:50
  - Not strange......its actually easy to win at sportsbetting (Betting) - usacanary, Aug 9, 22:14:04
    - poi (n/m) (Betting) - Huge Small, Aug 9, 23:16:42
  - not banned, but can only bet limited stakes (Betting) - wolfio, Aug 9, 19:51:37
    - Erm, wtf have you been doing? (n/m) (Betting) - Yellalee, Aug 9, 19:54:38
      - quick laymans explanation for those interested. (Betting) - usacanary, Aug 9, 22:31:43
      - profiting on games that are not mainstream (n/m) (Betting) - wolfio, Aug 9, 19:57:39
        
        Just an FYI (Betting) - 51eve, Aug 9, 19:59:58
        
        I can get around that by depositing with entropay (n/m) (Betting) - wolfio, Aug 9, 20:02:27
        
        Interesting, imagine it's quite susceptible to fraud if that's the case (n/m) (Betting) - 51eve, Aug 9, 20:04:48
        
        Oh OK. Bit harsh that they ban you! (n/m) (Betting) - Yellalee, Aug 9, 19:58:36
        
        Not banned (Betting) - 51eve, Aug 9, 20:03:10
  - they sometimes ban people (Betting) - Brandonio, Aug 9, 19:50:47
    - This, or freebet abuse (n/m) (Betting) - 51eve, Aug 9, 19:58:16
      - I only have Paddy Power now for the free bets they do, they don't seem to mind... (Betting) - DrDublin, Aug 9, 20:09:27

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