You have to think of it as distribution probabilities.......

You dont have a zero probability vs any team as bookies wouldn't let you bet!

You can use the betting markets for %'s

From today.

Saints vs Arsenal

Saints W (4/1) (0.57)
Saints D (3/1) (0.23)
Saints L (4/6) (0.0)

Meaning Saints have a probability of 0.8 PPG

We had around 0.7 vs Man City and 0.8 vs Chelsea

so

WBA -1.0
Chelsea 0.8
Man City 0.7
West Ham -1.1

so overall about 3.6 points.

It should be obvious those games are much tougher than average.

Posted By: usacanary on January 1st 2013 at 17:30:39

Message Thread

So, of those four games, how many points are we below expected do you reckon? (NCFC) - Yellalee, Jan 1, 17:08:14
- You have to think of it as distribution probabilities....... (NCFC) - usacanary, Jan 1, 17:30:39
- I said we'd lose all 4 (n/m) (NCFC) - Drinklebells, Jan 1, 17:17:50
- capable of winning any of the games (NCFC) - SCC 28, Jan 1, 17:09:59
  - You forgot the draw..... (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Jan 1, 17:11:54
    - i was emphasizing the extremes (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Jan 1, 17:12:53
      - Oh.....I just thought you forgot about draws...... (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Jan 1, 17:17:38
        
        nope (NCFC) - SCC 28, Jan 1, 17:19:14
  - Well I know that, but I was just setting my expectations (n/m) (NCFC) - Yellalee, Jan 1, 17:11:17
    - i expect us to stay up comfortably (NCFC) - SCC 28, Jan 1, 17:12:17
      - Yep, I wouldn't expect us to be too close to the bottom. (n/m) (NCFC) - Yellalee, Jan 1, 17:13:04
  - Or drawing. Football's funny like that isn't it (n/m) (NCFC) - Only1Doherty, Jan 1, 17:10:50
    - So what you are saying is we could win, lose or draw against anyone? (n/m) (NCFC) - Brandonio, Jan 1, 17:20:43
      - Yep, mad isn't it (n/m) (NCFC) - Only1Doherty, Jan 1, 17:24:21
    - yep any result is possible on a given today (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Jan 1, 17:11:29
- would have liked us to pick up a win and a draw, given our form (n/m) (NCFC) - phrankin, Jan 1, 17:09:58

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