Why the prediction Table of Tilt is not that great.....get your learn on!

Its obviously great at making haterz go off on a monkey magic meltdown....Haterz/Tilterz need to stop reading right now.

here is the updated table after the Bolton game.

Stoke 52
Norwich 50
Aston Villa 47
Sunderland 47
Swansea 45
Fulham 45
Everton 45
WBA 43
QPR 35
Bolton 33
Wolves 31
Blackburn 31
wigan 26

Now it predicts Norwich will get 50 points if we get the same points per game in the remaining 16 games as we did in the previous 22 games.

The obvious error is that it doesn't take into account the difficulty of the opponent and the venue (home or away)

Sportsbetting prediction modellers call this "strength of schedule"

The betting markets are pretty good predictors of the current strength of a team and the probability of the result of each game.

It should be obvious we should on average take more points from Wigan at home than Spurs away.
The betting odds reflect the rough estimated probabilities so you don't even have to do the hard work of making your own numbers unless you feel you know something the betting market doesnt know.

These are my estimated numbers based on the current strengths of the teams and the likley probabilities of results.

A Sunderland 0.9
H Bolton 1.7
A Swansea 1
H ManUtd 0.6
A Stoke 1
H Wigan 1.8
A Newcastle 0.9
H Wolves 1.8
A Fulham 1
H Everton 1.2
A Tottenham 0.5
H ManCity 0.6
A Blackburn 1.2
H Liverpool 0.9
A Arsenal 0.5
H AstonVilla 1.2

If you tally up the points it predicts 16.8 points for the last 16 games or a total of 45.8 points, well short of the TOTs 50 points.

Posted By: usacanary on January 21st 2012 at 22:40:01

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